For most AndroidSpin.com readers, Android, the little OS that could, is more than just a Linux Kernel wrapped in chewy Java goodness. Android OS stands for choice, open source, freedom from oppression, hacking and high performance mobile computing.
With that said, I propose we look at the fastest growing group of Android users. This article is more about getting into the minds of the potential Smartphone buyer and current owner who, if you mentioned Tegra 2, Dalvik or Bootloaders (No, this isn’t an article about obscure terms of Android hackers) they would tilt their heads like a puppy then scamper off to the Apple store to buy something safe, expensive and shiny.
Like it or not, these non-techies are the becoming the meat of the Android population now. Maybe not here on the blogosphere, but out there – where phone makers and carriers are listening to the crowd’s chants for something they don’t currently have.
How will their needs, or lack of knowing what their needs are, shape the Android platform?
This is the first of a series of articles that I hope will spur discussion (keep it civil) and create some space for the hard-core users to be prepared to do what we do best: help fellow mankind make good choices about technology. This first list is a hypothesis of casual observations, industry trends, marketing experience and lots of ‘Kentucky Windage’
Near Impact:
As the Android user base grows from mostly enthusiasts (to put it lightly) to mostly casual users, we might see little impact over the next 3-6 months. Manufactures might still see value in continuing the CPU/Memory/Feature wars currently being waged. Size, weight and battery life should stay secondary to sheer horsepower and user experience.
Mid Impact:
By the Christmas season, the Android landscape could very well look different. With two, three and possibly four iPhone dotting the landscape of carriers across the world there could be an easing of the fervor to ‘Better than Apple’. Ever present concerns of profits, costs and unlocking the overwhelmingly non-Apple & non-smartphone markets could be too tempting a prize for manufactures to ignore. We may see many more Android phones that are towards the low-low-low-end of the spectrum with multi-day battery life and tiny form factors.
Long Term:
This time next year, both carriers and manufacturers alike could be fully engaged in making smartphones the obvious or even only choice. For some users, even an OS like Android would seem undesirable and confusing. Those users will want something brutally simple. Most of what makes Android amazing will be ‘unmarketable’ to this section of mobile customers. New revenue sources will have to emerge to replace the high use data plans, market purchases and frequent hardware updates that power users easily indulge in.
Will the marketplace survive in its current form?
If so, what will it look like and how will it attract people who want only the basics?
What types of apps will be attractive to these ‘new’ users?
What will happen to upgrade cycles of the OS and hardware?
What could happen if users keep phones longer than 2 upgrade cycles?
If Android and the other OS makers are forced to ‘dumb-down’ their smart phones will there be a Chevrolet/Buick/Cadillac naming system to evolve, despite all the devices actually running Android?
In the distance:
Android will be heavily integrated into our lives in ways I personally can’t imagine yet. When I look back I see that the technology resistant population, even when forced to adopt, have underutilized, oversimplified and generally shaped a market that pushed enthusiasts to point of madness or bankruptcy trying to feed their need for the cutting edge.
With far too many examples of markets being driven by the need for easy and reliable as well as the “it works,” why do I need a new one mentality, my hope with this series of articles is to start developers and the Android community in general thinking about how to adapt to the needs of the many and still keeping the few fully satiated with the snarling, snorting, drop kicking Android awesomeness we have all grown to love.
Coming up in Android from the Outside: Part 2 – Potential Software Impacts
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